As a futurist, Kai Goerlich generates scenarios for the economy and life of the future. With his company Visionary Labs, he works with companies to find ways to deal with these scenarios. His passion for systemic thinking also brought him to shamanism.
K
ai Goerlich has his eyes firmly fixed on what is ahead: As a futurologist, he predicts trends and future developments. In doing so, he wants to help people adopt new perspectives and use them consciously and, with his consultancy Visionary Labs, shows companies the way to a self-determined future: ‘We go into a really creative process together with them. It’s challenging because it requires you to question your usual perspectives and embrace change.’ He knows only too well from his own experience how difficult this can be: ‘I want to support others to face up to this and realise their full potential.’
Understanding the miracle of life
When the now 60-year-old wanted to study, he was faced with the choice between music and biology. He chose biology to ‘understand the miracle of life’. But disillusionment soon set in: ‘The science itself is very exciting, especially when explaining how natural systems work and how we can survive in them’, he notes. ‘But for me personally, the question of the miracle of life remained open.’ He found answers to this in shamanism, which he still practices today and also teaches for ‘The Foundation for Shamanic Studies Europe’. The nonprofit association aims to preserve, research and pass on the knowledge of this thousand-year-old healing tradition.
Shamanism is based on the idea that everything is connected: People, living beings and all of nature. Goerlich sees this view as a prerequisite for surviving together on this planet: ‘We need a global consciousness that enables us to reach common agreements on our resource consumption and living situations.’ This is shown not least by the global flow of goods: ‘We are currently experiencing with particular intensity how dependent we are to varying degrees on how quickly they can be interrupted, and what problems this can trigger. And so we would have to work out other perspectives and structures.’
After studying biology, he left science to work in public relations: He worked in PR agencies in Frankfurt am Main for around eight years. That was when he came into contact with SAP: The software company was looking for people with expertise in marketing and the internet. ‘That was at the end of the 1990s, when modems were still humming away loudly – the Internet Stone Age, so to speak’, he recalls. ‘SAP wanted to use the technology in a communicative way.’ He joined the company and soon took the opportunity to move to a consulting subsidiary where he was to conduct market research to acquire new clients. ‘I analysed markets and competitors in the traditional way and read up on financial reports. Soon, I wanted to understand more deeply why analysts make certain predictions.’ He studied trends in industry and larger contexts that influence business, society and politics, he produced books internally on trend developments and found that there are people who systematically describe such predictions. ‘That was my entry into futurology’, says Goerlich. His path led him further to Potsdam, where he worked in the SAP Innovation Center Network as Chief Futurist and then set up his own company Visionary Labs with colleagues in this role.
Looking ahead with a clear view
Futurologists create scenarios for future developments. ‘For example, you can imagine a future without blockchain or one with blockchain, and combine that with the topic of sustainability: For example, what would happen if we can use blockchain technology and implement sustainability more robustly than before?’ Based on these scenarios, you can outline possible effects on the economy, society and one’s own company – and then set the course accordingly today. Perhaps, for example, you find that supply chains can be built more sustainably with the help of decentralised blockchain technology?
‘I don’t even need to know exactly (and for certain) what the world will look like in, say, ten years’ time’, says Goerlich. ‘I should only consider how I support or avoid certain developments related to this for my organisation.
KAI GOERLICH
Kai Goerlich studied biology in Würzburg and worked in PR and marketing until he specialised in futurology. After holding several positions at SAP – most recently at the Innovation Center in Potsdam – he is now Chief Futurist at Visionary Labs. He is a father to three children, married and lives near Potsdam.
And so it’s about looking ahead with a clear view and deriving possible development paths.’ He himself describes the process as if we were illuminating a dark room with torches: ‘Each and every one of us casts a thin ray of light into the darkness. We derive meaning from what we see there. When several people shine their light into the room, you can see a bit more. However, in order to recognise structures, I have to shed a lot more light on them and usually change my own location and frame of reference to do so.’ And so we are always challenged to ‘put ourselves in other people’s shoes’. This is often exhausting and can make people feel insecure. But with that said: ‘After all, the security you felt before is not real. We just like to settle into it – and then keep the thought patterns associated with it.’ A perfectly human reaction, because experimenting with the new and unknown always involves a degree of risk: ‘And especially the business community and government administrations are shying away from it; they want, above all, to minimise threats.’
Flexibility as the greatest strength
According to Goerlich, a society that experiences one-sided growth, as is currently the case, has little prospect for the future: ‘We have known since the Club of Rome in the 1970s that we are overextending the Earth’s natural resources. In these five decades, there has not been much of a learning effect.’ Here too, in his opinion, it becomes clear as to how the same paths are always used: ‘What kind of policy is it, for example, that could have pushed hydrogen technology a long time ago but keeps failing to do so?”
Acquire more resilience
He advises companies that want to be prepared for the challenges of today and tomorrow to acquire more resilience – more room to breathe in their own ecosystem. Supply chains should no longer be relied upon to function as seamlessly as they have in the past. ‘And if I want to survive, I have to become much more innovative and flexible, especially as a small or medium-sized enterprise. I should make myself independent of political decisions and network – build new networks and forge alliances. When systems change, I have to increase my ability to adapt and innovate. In nature, this is done without question: What doesn’t adapt is soon gone.’
Kai Goerlich sees how his scenarios become reality, how the paths he shows companies then take shape. He also has to live with it if his ideas are not implemented. ‘I’m good at that too’, he explains. ‘The only thing I can’t stand is excuses. When someone says: “I understand, that’s a great idea, but we’re not going to do it”, then that’s perfectly fine. But I can’t stand excuses – we’ve seen tonnes of great innovations crash and burn as a result.’
